House prices stagnate following Brexit vote

October 10, 2016 / Isla MacFarlane
House prices stagnate following Brexit vote

House prices in from July-September were 0.1% lower than in the preceding quarter, according to data from Halifax.

The annual rate of growth eased from 6.9% in August to 5.8%. “House prices in the three months to September were largely unchanged compared with the previous quarter,” said Martin Ellis, Halifax housing economist. “The housing market has followed a steady downward trend over the past six months with clear evidence of both a softening in activity levels and an easing in house price inflation.

“The reduction in annual house price growth from a peak of 10.0% in March to 5.8% six months later remains in line with our forecast at the end of 2015. A lengthy period where house prices have risen more rapidly than earnings has put pressure on affordability, therefore constraining demand. Very low mortgage rates and a shortage of properties available for sale should, however, help support price levels over the coming months.”

House prices in the three months to September reflect the lowest quarterly rate since November 2012 (-0.3%). The quarterly rate of change has been on a downward trend since reaching 3.0% in February.

Prices in the three months to September were 5.8% higher than in the same three months a year earlier. This compared to 6.9% in August and continues the downward trend seen over the past six months after the annual rate reached 10.0% in March. September’s 5.8% is the lowest yearly growth rate since August 2013 (5.4%).

House prices increased by 0.1% between August and September. This small increase followed two consecutive monthly falls. The quarter on quarter change is a more reliable indicator of the underlying trend.

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