The most recent United Trust Bank broker sentiment survey has revealed a differing of broker opinions on the potential for house price inflation over the next three years.
The survey, carried out in April this year, asked intermediaries from the fields of property and asset finance, what they expected the average UK house price to be by the end of 2020.
Key findings include:
- 8% of brokers expect the average UK house price to be between £195,000 and £205,000 by the end of 2020;
- 27% expect the average UK house price to be between £206,000 and £215,000;
- 30% expect the average UK house price to increase to between £216,000 and £225,000;
- 19% expect the average UK house price to increase to between £226,000 and £235,000;
- 14% expect the average UK house price to increase to between £236,000 and £250,000;
- Just 2% expect to see an average UK house price of over £250,000 by the end of 2020.
Nearly two thirds (65%) of brokers expect the average house price to increase by more than 5% by the end of 2020. However, more than a third (35%) of brokers predict growth of less than 5% with 8% of those expecting prices to remain static or fall.
35% of brokers expect to see the average UK house price increase by 10% or more over the next three years.
The average UK house price at the end of 2016 was just under £206,000, according to the Nationwide index. However, the most recent report indicated that average house prices fell in both March and April this year slowing the annual rate of house price growth to 2.6%. The average UK house price stood at £207,699 at the end of April, according to the Nationwide index.
United Trust Bank Property Development Director, Paul Keay, said, “It’s interesting that despite there being talk from several quarters that the property market is cooling off, most brokers expect prices to keep rising for at least the next three years. In our experience, the prime London market has seen activity decrease slightly over the last six to nine months and this has translated to lower sales values being achieved in some cases. However, on UTB funded developments outside of that small central London bubble, there is still strong demand and sales activity. That would indicate that there’s still plenty of confidence in the new home sector in the wider market, especially when supported by demand side initiatives like Help to Buy.
“Brexit, the UK general election and the spectre of rising inflation and falling growth forecasts create uncertainty. However, we should remember that the UK’s housing crisis is not going to simply disappear, whatever happens to the political landscape. The only solution is to keep building hundreds of thousands of new homes each year to satisfy demand, and if developers bring well considered proposals for the right projects in the right places, UTB will continue to provide the funding they need to keep building.”